The Elements of Persuasion

KNOW YOUR ENEMY

One thing every Hero does is define their Antagonist – the precise nature of the obstacle they must overcome. The Hero has a lot of leeway here, but because our point of view is partially determined by our past, every Hero has blind spots

Take the current economic crisis. If you are a Wall Street Insider you are likely to view the problem as one of “toxic loans”. It is the bad loans you made that are keeping up at night. What do you do about them? You get rid of them. Sell them to some sucker who doesn’t realize how toxic they are. And if you’re a Wall Street Insider who not so coincidentally happens to be the Secretary of the Treasury, well then you convince taxpayers to buy the junk for you. If you are Hank Paulson it makes sense.

But if instead you are an economist who has specialized in credit crises in a globalizing economy the problem isn’t just about bad loans, it is about frozen credit markets – banks that lack liquidity. Then the answer is to pump money directly into the banks – and because you don’t do that without some quid pro quo, you take a healthy share of the banks’ stock in return. That was the plan Paul Krugman has been pushing.

Since this isn’t a fictional story, these plans have real consequences that can be measured by the market. When the Paulson plan was announced markets went a twitter. When it was passed by Congress the Dow had the worst WEEK ever. When a variation of Krugman’s plan was adopted, with Britain in the lead, Wall Street had it’s best DAY ever. And as luck would have it, Krugman won the Nobel Prize for Economics.

Seems the the jury is in. Paul Krugman is our Hero.

Not that the recent stock pop will last – it probably won’t – but that the ideas behind it resonate with the people in the trenches. It is the Hero’s ability to inspire the folks on the firing line that makes the right story so central to real leadership.

COOLER HEADS

Like a lot of people who spend way too much time prowling the web I was shocked by this YouTube of folks coming out of a Palin Rally convinced Obama was a terrorist. If that is the take away from a GOP rally something is seriously wrong.

There are plenty of legitimate reasons not to vote for Obama – enough so that I don’t really have to list them here – but him being a “one man terrorist cell” whose “name says it all” is not one of them.

In The Elements of Persuasion Bob and I say:

“Of course, not every story has a happy ending, and there is a very real moral danger in creating villains… Story telling is innate in human beings, but it is in some respects a value-free process. Fortunately, there is a fail safe. Those stories that produce destructive and negative actions tend to cannibalize the people who tell them. They rapidly eliminate themselves from the cultural dialogue…”

But what do we do while we wait for the fever to run its course? Listening to the wise words of our political elders seems a good place to start.

This speech by Republican Jim Leach, formerly the Representative from Iowa’s 2^nd District, fills the bill. It was given at the Dem convention, and is an endorsement of Obama, but that isn’t the point. The point is that it is truly bipartisan.

What I really like about it is that it places the story of this election cycle in the larger context of the Four Great Questions that have been at the heart of every American election from our county’s beginning and lists progressive politicians from both parties who have helped our country move towards achieving our ideals. It would make the kernel for a great High School History class discussion.

Sometimes the real gems from a political convention don’t standout until later. This speech is one of those. To find out more about Jim Leach, click here.

ALASKA NOIR

Sarah Palin is not the only interesting story coming out of Alaska. Ted “Hell No” Stevens is on trial for failing to report “gifts” from “lobbyists.” His is also running for reelection. The DNCC put together this little gem. I don’t like negative ads, but this one is too genre perfect to pass up. If you still have doubt that great political ads are story driven, this 30 sec spot should lay them to rest.

A quick 5-elements analysis: The Passion (irreducible core) of the ad is carried by the opening sound track – a cross between a political thriller and a local news stations investigative reporter theme. It establishes beyond doubt that this will be a crime story. The people in the van are our Heroes (we even see Stevens' house on a video monitor stressing their point of view is our point of view). Stevens is the Antagonist “He thinks he is above the law”. And crucially there is a moment of clear awareness when one “reporter” says disgusted, “And I voted for him.” Finally a transformative tag line “It’s not about Alaska anymore.” This is great stuff.

BTW, if anyone has any great Repub ads I’d love to analyze them. Most of what I’ve seen from the Repubs are tired retreads, but I’m probably missing something. Enlighten me, please.

THE PAST IS PROLOGUE

I don’t usually comment on the debates. I don’t do play-by-play and in story terms these debates have basically been yawners.

But one moment from the VP Debate has stuck with me. Palin set it up early by conspicuously asking Biden, “Can I call you, Joe.” Then later when he brought up McCain’s record she pulled the trigger with “Say it ain’t so, Joe. There you go again, looking backwards.”

Biden’s reply when asked to respond by moderator Gwen Ifill, “Gwen, as you know, past is prologue,” seemed awfully academic to me given Palin’s down home diction. But now a video has come out that shows Biden may have been doing a little setting things up of his own.

This video is long – 13 minute - so it is preaching to the choir, but it seems to be designed to tell the Dem faithful what they need to know to pivot character attacks on Obama back to their strong point, the economy. Don't have 13 minutes? The trailer is only 30 seconds.

In McCain’s defense at least initially he seemed to learn his lesson from the Keating fiasco and he earned his reputation as driver of the “Straight Talk Express” by being open and honest about his mistakes with reporters. But now, in an analogous situation, he seems to be ducking even off the record interviews. Am I the only one that finds that strange?

HEALTH CARE CAGE FIGHT!!

The other day I was at my doctor’s office and he started in on Health Care. Since he was holding a very large needle in his hand at the time he had my total attention.

What he said made sense but I have no expertise in this area, so I asked him to write it up and I’d post it as submitted as an example of informed grass roots storytelling. If there is anyone on the other side of the issue that wants to respond I’ll post that as is as well (same length please). Me? I just want to sit back and watch the fur fly!

Doc Eliot wrote:

The McCain Health Plan consists of nothing more or less that the unlimited federal subsidy of insurance companies.

Yes. This is true. The Republican health care plan to reward insurance company lobbyists is camouflaged by promoting the issuance of “Tax Credits”. This money would go directly to the insurance companies. Furthermore, there would be de-regulation, freeing out-of-state insurance companies to do business across state lines while violating the states’ rights to regulate, and therefore resulting in the lowest common denominator of health care. Insurance companies would be free to continue to raise prices, deny payments, and meddle in the practice of medicine. There is no current Republican plan to actually improve health care. How do they plan to raise the money by which the federal government will subsidized the insurance companies? Currently, employer health benefits for employee are non-taxable. The McCain “Health” plan would tax this money!!! The McCain plan would increase taxes in order to subsidize insurance companies.

The Obama Plan is extensive, realistic and designed to engage and address all health care issues. Please go to booth candidates’ websites and verify the truth of the situation for yourselves.

Do not be fooled. Your health and the health of everyone you care for is at stake.

If you want to fact check this, click here for Obama, or here for McCain. I did. What Doc said seemed to check out.

Am I being bamboozled? If so, set me straight.

THE MAYOR FROM MAYBERRY

Great stories always have an inherent symmetry. This is particularly true of those stories written by history.

At the beginning of the Bush Administration in 2002 John DiIulio, who had run President Bush’s Office of Faith Based Initiatives resigned and called Karl Rove’s minions “Mayberry Machiavellis.” For many the name stuck.

But among Mr. Rove’s most useful political skills is his ability to see the branding gems hidden inside many insults. Attack George W’s grammar and miraculously his syntax will become even more tortured. Then Neocon commentators will stress how “down home” and “mainstream” W’s wisdom really is, as if most folks didn’t actually pass the seventh grade and most “ranches” aren’t devoted to growing cattle but to producing an endless supply of scrub brush that needs to be telegenically cut.

So it is to be expected that the Mayberry theme of this White House might lead the Rovian Repubs to choose a down home Mayor from a backwoods little town even smaller than the mythical Mayberry for the role of VP.

And Sarah Palin, who got here training in front of the camera as a local sportscaster for KTUU-TV in Anchorage, is playing it for all it is worth. And more power to her. Her unique speaking style, so easy to imitate and so brilliantly parodied by Tina Fey, is a form of verbal branding that will make sure her 15 minutes of fame won’t run out who ever wins this election.

That her verbal style is a conscious decision – and so worthy of praise – can be seen if you listen to how she responded in debates when she ran for Governor of Alaska. The winks, nods, “aw shucks” and “I’ll get back to yas” just aren’t there.

To see how effective this type of verbal branding can be in building a heroic persona, listen to the Master, Andy Griffith in his classic storytelling routine "What It Was, Was Football." One problem for McCain: If Palin is playing wise and steady Sherrif Andy, who is playing the socially awkward, nervously erratic and occasionally irrationally angry role of Barney Fife?

VOTE EATING VILLAINS

Yes, Virginia, there are real villains in politics. In our book The Elements of Persuasion we stress not demonizing an antagonist. In the real world, as opposed to Hollywood, you should be careful using the V word. But there are times it fits. We are reaching one of those times.

I’m not talking about nasty attack ads. Those are often in the eye of the beholder. Your hero is my antagonist. Your scandalous lie is my biting social commentary. It’s an American tradition that goes back at least to the mercurial friendship and bitter hurt feelings of Jefferson and Adams. A little mud slinging keeps our democracy down to earth, and hurray for us for doing it. Americans are a scrappy bunch. That is one reason we’re such lovable galoots. But the desire to win can go too far.

If there is one thing all Americans should agree on it is that every citizen has a right the right, if not the duty, to vote. That is not a technical right granted by a benevolent State, it is an Inalienable Right made tangible by the sacrifices of our Founding Fathers and “watered by the blood of patriots” in every generation since. So organized voter suppression is truly villainous.

And what could be more villainous than a banker foreclosing on little Nell’s mortgage then twirling his metaphoric mustache as he has the sheriff tear up her ballot because she doesn’t live there anymore. According to the website The Michigan Messenger someone connected with Repubs is trying to do just this in battleground state of Michigan. The Messenger's post must have touched some nerve because a slander suit has been filed. TPM fact-checked to find out who was paying the attorney fees and got shined on by the shyster involved which is not a good sign.

If this is actually happening, shame on whichever party allows it.

Of course there are more sophisticated technical ways of denying – or enhancing - the vote (and both parties seem to do it). Check out HBO's Hacking Democracy - availabe on disk - a truly scary documentary. Perfect for your pre election Halloween Party.

MC CAIN SHOULD SAY NO

As I said in the last post both candidates should take a strong NO position on the suggested financial sector bail out for purely story reasons. Lets start with McCain.

Remember, this election is about America choosing its “hero-in-chief” We are looking for someone who can hold their ground in a difficult and dangerous world. In marketing terms it is about having a strong and sustainable brand.

The McCain campaign has been pushing two related brand concepts; 1). McCain is a maverick and 2) McCain “will fight for you”. Saying yes to this bailout seriously erodes both messages.

By definition a maverick does not run with the herd, and that goes double in the middle of a stampede. It looks like that is what Paulson is trying to get going. The Treasury Secretary probably sincerely believes that this is best way to save the situation, or it may just be that this is the way the Bush Whitehouse likes to market its proposals (it does seem eerily similar to how we got into Iraq and passed the Patriot Act) but that is the current administration’s story choice. For McCain to beat the bad rap that he is “McSame” he needs to separate himself from those choices. He needs to stand strong against the biggest special interest in Congress – the Financial Products Industry. If he doesn't his maverick brand is toast.

McCain also needs to say no to protect his only really effective brand slogan “I’ll fight for you.” You can’t go into a fight by giving up before it starts. And you won’t have much leverage to “hold the bad guys accountable” and “make them famous” if you give them a blank check and promise not to ask any hard questions for the next two years, and that is what this bailout does.

So McCain should just say “Thanks but no thanks” to the Treasury Secretary’s proposed 700 Billion dollar “bridge loan to nowhere.” His political survival depends on it.

If you don’t think a tsunami of populist anger is heading our way check out this ad I found on that bastion of socialist skullduggery – Market Watch. BTW last Friday was the 13^th Annual “Speak Like a Pirate Day” so in the spirit of better late than never – ARGHH!

CONFESSION

If you have been following this blog for any length of time – and if you have, sincere thanks – you have noticed an increasingly partisan tone lately. You deserve to know why.

When Bob and I started to comment on the political stories we weren’t doing it as Repubs or as Dems. Our expertise is in corporate (Bob prefers to say “organizational”) story telling. Political campaigns are great examples of that sort of state-of-the-art persuasive communications. Our expertise isn’t in what you are trying to sell, but how you are trying to sell it. That’s the point of this blog.

And for many months we hewed to this “neither Dem or Repub” line. Both political parties had candidates who told their stories well, and that is what interests us.

Then the McCain Palin campaign crossed a moral line with a truly scurrilous ad. I’m talking about the Obama “sex ed” ad from a few weeks ago which implies through camera angles and general creepiness that Obama is a pedophile when in fact the bill he was voting for was to help protect young children from sexual predators.

We didn’t comment on it at the time because as we point out in The Elements of Persuasion this sort of negative ad thrives on controversy. Far better to let it die unnoticed. In fact we consider this ad is so immoral that we will not even provide a link to it. We will however provide links that debunk it. Read what the NYT has to say about it here, and see what FactCheck has to say here.

Recently on the “Straight Talk Express” the press started to chant “Bring back Mac, Bring back Mac.” This ad proves it may already be too late. Mac, we considered you an honorable man. You broke our hearts.

KATRINA WITH CASH

There is a real symmetry between what is happening right now on Wall Street and what happened in the 9^th Ward of New Orleans when Katrina struck. Both that hurricane and the financial down turn we are now in were acts of nature. Hurricane seasons brings nasty storms, and stocks go down as well as up. 

The job of a government agency – FEMA or the SEC – is to make sure that as few people as possible are hurt by the laws of physics. But if you are a committed Neocon and believe that if you can’t have less government you can at least make sure the government you do have will work less well, then the crooks and cronies you have manning the levies and policing the street when the shit inevitably hits the fan will be predictably incompetent. This isn’t a mistake. It is the result of doctrine.

According to Andrew Leonard at “How the World Works” John McCain is trying to get ahead of this story by calling for the firing of SEC head Christopher Cox. Aside from the slight “lets eat our own young” aspect to this, it is a good story move by McCain. A bad move would have been to say Cox was “doing a heck of a job.”

But Cox alone isn’t the real culprit. Over at “The Big Picture” Barry Ritholtz makes it clear that the real decisions that put us in this mess happened in 2004. So it now seems there might actually be a smoking gun here. Unfortunately for McCain if his suggestion to have a 9/11-style investigation of this mess were to actually take it looks like there would be plenty of GOP fingerprints on the pistol. 

If it is all seems too much of a bummer to bare believe me I understand, and so does Jon Stewart.  He’ll put it in perspective.