The Elements of Persuasion

We are all Bernie Madoff

For at least the last 20 years we have all been living in a giant ponzi scheme and our greed has devoured our ability to see the consequences of our insatiable appetites for more stuff. Now we are paying the piper.

Under this enormous sense of loss come feelings of fear and betrayal. We are hyped up to find the culprit who brought us to our knees. We point in every direction away from ourselves to find a scapegoat.

Maybe the time has come to ask “how can I be more real?” rather than asking “what’s in it for me?”  Now is the time to shift our thinking and inquire in these areas:

1. What is all this frantic consumption and blame keeping me from seeing about myself?
2. What uncomfortable thoughts and feelings are trying to arise such as fear, guilt and shame and how am I not letting them be heard by stuffing them down?
3. How can I get real and share what I am feeling openly with a community of people who want to pull together and not pull apart?
4. My Master of the Universe life is over. I have been seen as the emperor with no clothes and instead of running into my silo and hiding I can take a breathe and ask how can I become more real, more authentic and more useful to my family, friends and colleagues?
   

There is a little piece of Bernie inside each of us.  As long as we act entitled and imperious, that little piece of Bernie will grow into more self-delusion.  We will perpetuate our fraud. When we have the courage to stop and look at ourselves in the mirror we have the opportunity to learn and change.

 

END GAME ELEMENTS

Since early in the primaries this blog has taken the position that Obama’s strong element – the basis of his campaign – is Passion (his ability rally people around a central motivating core concept) and that McCain’s is the element we call the Antagonist (his ability to define the story as his struggle against whatever is between him and his goal).

No story element is better or worse than any other. You need all five to tell a compelling story, and every storyteller has their own style and preference. But it is fascinating that as we come into the home stretch that we have such a strong visual contrast between the two campaigns.

One the one hand you have Obama gathering enormous pep rally style crowds like the one he had in St. Louis where what he says is broad and inclusive. It is worth the click. This is “come on in the water is fine” at its most public.

And on the other you have McCain and company saturating the phone lines with highly targeted robocalls that define Obama as pretty much whatever it is that the listener might find unappealing. Phone calls, even robotic ones, are by nature private and personal.

Election day has both qualities. When you vote you get to feel that you are part of something much bigger than yourself - and you get to brag about it by wearing you “I voted sticker.” And when you are actually casting your ballot you are totally alone with your own deepest and most private thoughts and fears. It is a great story contrast – a suiting end to a long and historic campaign.

KNOW YOUR ENEMY

One thing every Hero does is define their Antagonist – the precise nature of the obstacle they must overcome. The Hero has a lot of leeway here, but because our point of view is partially determined by our past, every Hero has blind spots

Take the current economic crisis. If you are a Wall Street Insider you are likely to view the problem as one of “toxic loans”. It is the bad loans you made that are keeping up at night. What do you do about them? You get rid of them. Sell them to some sucker who doesn’t realize how toxic they are. And if you’re a Wall Street Insider who not so coincidentally happens to be the Secretary of the Treasury, well then you convince taxpayers to buy the junk for you. If you are Hank Paulson it makes sense.

But if instead you are an economist who has specialized in credit crises in a globalizing economy the problem isn’t just about bad loans, it is about frozen credit markets – banks that lack liquidity. Then the answer is to pump money directly into the banks – and because you don’t do that without some quid pro quo, you take a healthy share of the banks’ stock in return. That was the plan Paul Krugman has been pushing.

Since this isn’t a fictional story, these plans have real consequences that can be measured by the market. When the Paulson plan was announced markets went a twitter. When it was passed by Congress the Dow had the worst WEEK ever. When a variation of Krugman’s plan was adopted, with Britain in the lead, Wall Street had it’s best DAY ever. And as luck would have it, Krugman won the Nobel Prize for Economics.

Seems the the jury is in. Paul Krugman is our Hero.

Not that the recent stock pop will last – it probably won’t – but that the ideas behind it resonate with the people in the trenches. It is the Hero’s ability to inspire the folks on the firing line that makes the right story so central to real leadership.

COOLER HEADS

Like a lot of people who spend way too much time prowling the web I was shocked by this YouTube of folks coming out of a Palin Rally convinced Obama was a terrorist. If that is the take away from a GOP rally something is seriously wrong.

There are plenty of legitimate reasons not to vote for Obama – enough so that I don’t really have to list them here – but him being a “one man terrorist cell” whose “name says it all” is not one of them.

In The Elements of Persuasion Bob and I say:

“Of course, not every story has a happy ending, and there is a very real moral danger in creating villains… Story telling is innate in human beings, but it is in some respects a value-free process. Fortunately, there is a fail safe. Those stories that produce destructive and negative actions tend to cannibalize the people who tell them. They rapidly eliminate themselves from the cultural dialogue…”

But what do we do while we wait for the fever to run its course? Listening to the wise words of our political elders seems a good place to start.

This speech by Republican Jim Leach, formerly the Representative from Iowa’s 2^nd District, fills the bill. It was given at the Dem convention, and is an endorsement of Obama, but that isn’t the point. The point is that it is truly bipartisan.

What I really like about it is that it places the story of this election cycle in the larger context of the Four Great Questions that have been at the heart of every American election from our county’s beginning and lists progressive politicians from both parties who have helped our country move towards achieving our ideals. It would make the kernel for a great High School History class discussion.

Sometimes the real gems from a political convention don’t standout until later. This speech is one of those. To find out more about Jim Leach, click here.

ALASKA NOIR

Sarah Palin is not the only interesting story coming out of Alaska. Ted “Hell No” Stevens is on trial for failing to report “gifts” from “lobbyists.” His is also running for reelection. The DNCC put together this little gem. I don’t like negative ads, but this one is too genre perfect to pass up. If you still have doubt that great political ads are story driven, this 30 sec spot should lay them to rest.

A quick 5-elements analysis: The Passion (irreducible core) of the ad is carried by the opening sound track – a cross between a political thriller and a local news stations investigative reporter theme. It establishes beyond doubt that this will be a crime story. The people in the van are our Heroes (we even see Stevens' house on a video monitor stressing their point of view is our point of view). Stevens is the Antagonist “He thinks he is above the law”. And crucially there is a moment of clear awareness when one “reporter” says disgusted, “And I voted for him.” Finally a transformative tag line “It’s not about Alaska anymore.” This is great stuff.

BTW, if anyone has any great Repub ads I’d love to analyze them. Most of what I’ve seen from the Repubs are tired retreads, but I’m probably missing something. Enlighten me, please.

THE PAST IS PROLOGUE

I don’t usually comment on the debates. I don’t do play-by-play and in story terms these debates have basically been yawners.

But one moment from the VP Debate has stuck with me. Palin set it up early by conspicuously asking Biden, “Can I call you, Joe.” Then later when he brought up McCain’s record she pulled the trigger with “Say it ain’t so, Joe. There you go again, looking backwards.”

Biden’s reply when asked to respond by moderator Gwen Ifill, “Gwen, as you know, past is prologue,” seemed awfully academic to me given Palin’s down home diction. But now a video has come out that shows Biden may have been doing a little setting things up of his own.

This video is long – 13 minute - so it is preaching to the choir, but it seems to be designed to tell the Dem faithful what they need to know to pivot character attacks on Obama back to their strong point, the economy. Don't have 13 minutes? The trailer is only 30 seconds.

In McCain’s defense at least initially he seemed to learn his lesson from the Keating fiasco and he earned his reputation as driver of the “Straight Talk Express” by being open and honest about his mistakes with reporters. But now, in an analogous situation, he seems to be ducking even off the record interviews. Am I the only one that finds that strange?

ANTI SLEAZE

What do you do when your opponent consciously decides to stir things up by launching attacks that are just this side of inciting a lynch mob? Or, because on this blog politics is viewed as a test bed for broader communications strategies, your company’s chief competitor launches a viral rumor campaign against your flagship product?

The best response is a calm and trusted voice that can set things right. It could be a CEO who steps forward (the Japanese are particularly adroit at that) but an endorsement from an outsider whose voice is broadly trusted by your target audience is much, much better.

This radio ad, running now in the battle ground state of Virginia, is a micotargeting masterpiece. And the music in the background ain’t half bad neither. Don't miss it.

A very big thanks to Kathy G or at The G-Spot for putting this up. Click over to her website and check it out. She has a lot more of Ralph Stanley’s music posted. My favorite? “Man of Constant Sorrow” which pretty much covers how many folks will be feeling when they open up that envelop and see their 401K statement latter this month.

VOTE EATING VILLAINS

Yes, Virginia, there are real villains in politics. In our book The Elements of Persuasion we stress not demonizing an antagonist. In the real world, as opposed to Hollywood, you should be careful using the V word. But there are times it fits. We are reaching one of those times.

I’m not talking about nasty attack ads. Those are often in the eye of the beholder. Your hero is my antagonist. Your scandalous lie is my biting social commentary. It’s an American tradition that goes back at least to the mercurial friendship and bitter hurt feelings of Jefferson and Adams. A little mud slinging keeps our democracy down to earth, and hurray for us for doing it. Americans are a scrappy bunch. That is one reason we’re such lovable galoots. But the desire to win can go too far.

If there is one thing all Americans should agree on it is that every citizen has a right the right, if not the duty, to vote. That is not a technical right granted by a benevolent State, it is an Inalienable Right made tangible by the sacrifices of our Founding Fathers and “watered by the blood of patriots” in every generation since. So organized voter suppression is truly villainous.

And what could be more villainous than a banker foreclosing on little Nell’s mortgage then twirling his metaphoric mustache as he has the sheriff tear up her ballot because she doesn’t live there anymore. According to the website The Michigan Messenger someone connected with Repubs is trying to do just this in battleground state of Michigan. The Messenger's post must have touched some nerve because a slander suit has been filed. TPM fact-checked to find out who was paying the attorney fees and got shined on by the shyster involved which is not a good sign.

If this is actually happening, shame on whichever party allows it.

Of course there are more sophisticated technical ways of denying – or enhancing - the vote (and both parties seem to do it). Check out HBO's Hacking Democracy - availabe on disk - a truly scary documentary. Perfect for your pre election Halloween Party.

MONEY TALKS

Not all stories are words. Some are told visually, some numerically. The right spreadsheet at the right time can speak volumes.

A headline like the one I woke up to in this Sundays L A Times:

“Bailout to reach $700,000,000,000”

(with every zero in there for emphasis) makes it crystal clear that the Market Meltdown will be sucking up all the story oxygen for a many news cycles to come.

So how can the McCain and Obama campaigns get ahead of the story and roll it into their candidate’s vision of the future? I’m not talking about political spin or partisan posturing. Any hint of that will probably prove fatal. I’m talking about how the candidates can use their points of view – the empathic connection they have been developing for months with the voters - to help us all get a handle on this problem. That’s what heroes do – they bring us together for the common good by giving us a common framework to solve our problems.

How should Obama and McCain do it? Interestingly enough both campaigns should follow the example of Nancy Reagan and “JUST SAY NO!”

The reasons why they should say no are different for each candidate because each candidates story is different but the fact that they should both end up saying the same thing – NO - gives me bipartisan hope.

In the next day or two I’ll go into details on the story implications for each candidates. But to get an overview of the situation I suggest you check out this interview Bill Moyers just did with Kevin Philips. Philips first major work – The Emerging Republican Majority - was done while he was working in the Nixon White house and laid out what became known as the Southern Strategy. Since then his analysis has crisscrossed back and forth over party lines. His book “Wealth and Democracy” is as good a macro analysis of the problems America now faces as I have ever read. In this interview Phillips makes it clear that current financial crisis is a bipartisan problem long in the making, with more than enough mud to go around if we want to start slinging. Hopefully we won’t.

To stay up on breaking news you might want to try out ‘The Big Picture” blogsite if you don’t use it already.

IT'S THE NEOCON ECONOMY, STUPID

If you find yourself fighting someone you can’t lay of glove on (say a legitimate war hero or a cute, plucky, hokey Mom) you could get down in the mud and scuff up their heroic image, but you’ll end smelling like dirt. What you should do is attack not the people, but their point of view. That is what makes them Heroes in the first place.

This means that Dems shouldn’t run against McCain (or Palin) – but should run against the Repub point of view- aka Neocon dogma. And at least at first they should stick to the number one issue on voter minds – the economy.

McCain’s statement that “the economy is fundamentally sound” could be the gift that keeps on giving. But it isn’t enough to show McCain is out of touch – no duh, right? That would be attacking the man. Attack the ideas behind him.

Dems need to get voters to ask, “What caused the market to crash?”

Experts agree it was the lack of adequate market oversight. And most of the oversight protections put in place by the New Deal Dems after the Great Depression in 1932 were scaled back after the Neocon Revolution swept through Congress after 1992. Who was leading the charge to turn your money and mine over to “the invisible hand” of the hedge fund hustlers? Republican Senator Phil Gramm of Texas.

Gramm is no longer a Senator (he is too busy as a lobbyist) but until he was caught on tape calling American investors “whinners” he was McCain’s main financial adviser! Off the record it seems he still is. He, and the ideas he champions, are the Dem sweet spot. If you are looking for a place to put a stake in the heart of the neocon market monster – Phil Gramm's chest is ground zero.

So Dems should drive one simple point home – "Markets go up under Dems and down under Repubs". That is a fact. Has been for the last 75 years. If you are a Dem, say it loud, say it proud, say it often.If you are a Repub - do you best to change the subject.

The best thing about Dems running against the neocon economic brand rather than against a person is that Obama and Biden can stay out of a negative tit or tat game of gottcha. Instead of coming across slightly rabid they can come across as having a calm hand on the tiller. That is going to be key. Because when the seas get rough I don’t want a guy at the wheel who “will fight for me,” (McCain’s favorite phrase) I want a guy who knows how to find a safe harbor and keep things calm on deck until we get there.