ALL OVER BUT THE SHOUTING

With his loss in South Dakota Barak Obama accumulated the magic number of delegates to win the Democratic Nomination of the first ballot – theoretically. And the media says it is in the bag. Of course, they have been saying that for months. And may be it is. But for a campaign whose slogan is “Change We Can Believe In” the Obamistas seem deeply certain that none of their over 2000 delegates will change their minds in the long months until Denver, months in which McCain will begin his attacks and Obama’s responses will be judged.

Remember that none of the Super Delegates are legally bound to vote the way they say they will when talking to the press. And most of the elected delegates are not legally bound to vote the way they said they would on the ballot. As Yogi Berra said “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” And it ain’t over until the Convention calls the role, counts the votes, and all those balloons drop. It IS all over but the shouting, but shouting is what a good convention is all about. That and silly hats.

As the Dem activist ladies chanting “McCain ‘08” in front of the DNC rules committee Saturday made quite clear, it could be a very fractious convention. Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned – unless of course it is 18 million of them. And I'm not sure even Hillary in full compromise mode can control that. This is actually a very good thing for the Dems.

Why? Because so far there really hasn’t been a clear moment of Dem awareness. The penny hasn’t dropped. Until that moment no real transformation can occur. I’ve been looking for it; I’ve been waiting for it, but haven’t seen it yet. But we will see it as the smoke clears. And that will be what we are dealing with as the blog gets back into gear.

In the mean time there were THREE important speeches last night, and TPM Election Centraol has all three. Hillary ,Obama and McCain. Check them out. They are the tea leaves from which the future can be read. You can see them by clicking over.