The Elements of Persuasion

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

You have to hand it to Karl Rove. When it comes to understanding how to use and focus the power of the Antagonist there is really no one better.

I have never been a fan of Rove’s dirty tricks. There is nothing particularly clever about gay bashing (ok, gay-marriage bashing) as a campaign tactic. But getting the Dems to ignore John Edwards, their most broadly popular candidate (as viewed by favorability ratings) and turn their rhetorical guns on each other rather than any of the myriad Repub policy failures – now that does show the touch of a Maestro.

And he did it with just two articles.

First, back in December he wrote an oped piece in the Financial Times laying out what Obama should do to beat Hillary. When Hillary began saying that Obama’s attacks were “right out of the Republican play book” this is what she was referring to. To be fair to Obama he didn’t really need Rove’s advice. But by offering it Rove got under Clinton’s skin, making her responses increasingly brittle and personal.

Then after Hillary held the line in New Hampshire Rove again went into print- this time in the Wall Street Journal. Talking of Obama’s performance at the New Hampshire Debate Rove said, “His trash talking was an unattractive carryover from his days playing pickup basketball at Harvard, and capped a mediocre night.” That is pretty obvious racial stereotyping, as was Rove use of the code word "lazy" in referring to Obama. The national press picked up on the racial overtones.

Once Karl brought race out of the closet, it was fair game.Soon every campaign comment was being scanned for racial or gender charge. That left John E. – a white male - with no dog in the fight. Lost in the fray was John’s message.

With the nation slipping towards recession (the Fed didn’t just viciously slash interest rates because everything is really peachy) it might be a good time to look at what that message was. As John Edwards himself eloquently said in his withdrawal speech down in the still devastated 9^th Ward of New Orleans:

"I don't know when our party began to turn away from the cause of working people, from the fathers who were working three jobs literally just to pay the rent, mothers sending their kids to bed wrapped up in their clothes and in coats because they couldn't afford to pay for heat."

It is a question many Dems may be asking come November. And the person they have thank for it is the maestro himself.

WHY THE REAGAN REMARKS MATTER

As the Dems head to the polls in South Carolina and the Repubs in Florida squabble over immigration, the country is slipping into a recession. That recession, not immigration, Iraq, or which candidate you’d prefer to share a beer with, is likely to dominate the election cycle of 08. That is the storyline we need to be watching.

The President’s response has been predictable. Tax cuts. Paul Krugman’s analysis shows why it will be largely a wasted effort. 2/3 of the money will go not to the people who need it most and would spend it quickest, but directly into the bank accounts of the well off where it will stimulate nothing but knowing smiles.

The idea that broad consumer tax cuts (the crack cocaine of economic stimulus packages) is the correct response to a recession is one of the legacies of the “Reagan Revolution.” The Repub storyline – largely echoed by the media – is that tax cuts by Reagan stopped the recession of 1980 in its tracks, leading to an unparalleled period of economic growth. And you can definitely shade the statistic to show that. But you can also make the case that real economic growth came 12 years later, in 1993, when Bill Clinton raised taxes on the rich (without the help of even one Repub vote) which led to 8 years of solid increases in employment, productivity, real income growth, and equality of wealth distribution.

The storyline Dems need come September is one Ronald Reagon successfully used, “Are you better off now than you were eight years ago?” What they don’t want to do is bring up images of “Morning in America.” That is why the squabble over Obama’s remarks seeming to give the Repubs the title “Party of Ideas” actually matters. You don’t cede the high ground to your enemy before the first shot is even fired.

FIGHTS THAT MATTER, FIGHTS THAT DON'T

The primary campaigns are well into the Antagonist stage where candidates identify and exploit their opponents’ weaknesses. No party can afford a long love fest focused on only one candidate. That happened to the Dems with John Kerry and when he was eventually – and inevitably - swift boated he was predictably caught flat-footed.

But you don’t want the intramural shoving to draw so much blood that come November it’s hard for everyone to be on the same team. Last night’s Dem debate in Myrtle Beach came very close to crossing that line. It was John Edwards that saved the day.

To recap the key moment: Obama was jabbing at Hillary for “not telling the truth.” Hillary ducked her head slightly to the left then neatly reached around and rabbit punched Obama by bringing up the fact that he once worked for a Chicago slumlord. It brought an audible gasp from the crowd. We tend to think of Hillary as the Senator from New York, or the First Lady from Arkansas, but she comes out of the Windy City and is still a die-hard Cubs fan. The rules of Chicago political debate start in the gutter and don’t get much higher. Obama comes from the same streets  - he shouldn’t have been surprised. The press loved it. Nothing like the scent of blood for hot headlines.

But before lasting damage to party unity could occur John E. demanded the floor and hit hard with two questions: One – “Are there three candidates up here or just two?” which forced the MSM narrative of “the showdown in South Carolina” to be opened up to include both him and the policy issues he raises. Two “Just how many children are going to get the health care they desperately need because of this squabbling?” bringing the debate back to real problems and the real obstacles ahead.

With this courtroom experience John E. knows you can win the argument and still lose the jury - and in this election the jury is still out. Like many I give this debate to John Edwards. If he drops out, we all lose.

CLOVERFIELD

Sometimes where you see a film is as important as the content of the film itself. This is particularly true of genre films you see in a theater near where the events in the film take place. Your familiarity with the locations helps draw you in, and drawing you in so that you can experience the visceral rush of the ride is the whole point of this type of film. 

I just saw Cloverfield at the perfect venue – the Regal at 42^nd Street and Eighth Avenue in Manhattan. Icing on the cake – it was a first night after-the-bars close late show packed house of bartenders, waitresses and busboys - horror buffs all. I loved the ride. If you like SciFi you want to be sure and see this one..

But Cloverfield, a modern day Godzilla shot Blair Witch style, has such a strong sense of time (one strangely bifurcated day) and place (Manhattan from Spring Street up to Central Park) that I’m not sure how I would have felt watching it at any other location. For the last week those have been my literal stomping grounds as my partner and I did a consulting job for a NYC design firm. Don’t get me wrong, This flick isn’t a classic. It is the sort of low-brow high-concept trash you expect from the J. J. Abrams’ brand (and I mean that in a good way, believe it or not) Still it is only 90 minutes long, so what have you got to lose? And you definitely need the big screen and the occasional snarky comment from the back row to get the full effect.

I can’t say more without shamelessly spoiling, but there is a lot to study here in terms of hero, so you’ve got a week see it, then lets talk more. If you do go see it, start the conversation by posting comments. Let me know how it played in your town.

 

DGA SETTLES, WHAT NOW??

The big news out of LA this morning is that the Directors Guild of America (DGA) has reached an agreement with the AMPTP. You can read all about the positive and negatives here (and while you are there buy a t-shirt, they may become collectors items soon). The deal does seem to achieve at least some of what the WGA (Writers Guild of America) wanted. But the whole idea of pattern bargaining has been turned upside down in the entertainment industry and there are rank and file grumblings about that. So it is not a done deal that the writers strike will end by any means.

In the automobile industry, for example, the Auto Workers band together (UAW) and traditionally strike one of the big three companies (the weakest and so the one it feels it can make the best deal with) and the other auto makers have to fall in line around that contract knowing if they don't they will face strikes while the competitors continue to happily make cars under the new contract. In the entertainment industry (and it is an industry - one of America's most profitable and one where the USA continues to be the gold standard) it has been working the other way. The Media Conglomerates (AMPTP) band together and make a deal with which ever of the big three guilds (WGA, DGA, SAG) they feel will be easiest to get what they want from - setting a pattern the other Guilds will follow. BUT - and it is a big but - there is no reason any other Guild will necessarily agree. AND having Directors ready to work without scripts (or the real nightmare, having it all ready and clock running on the financing you got to actually make the movie and then the actors refusing to show up land to to work) doesn't really get you anywhere - other than bankruptcy court.

So the writers now have reached a crucial plot point. I simply note that in strike of 1960 the WGA stayed on strike over the recommendation of its own Board of Directors choosing instead to stay strong behind its Negotiating Committee, and the result was health care and a pension fund that became industry standard.

One quick point. I received an email from a fellow writer saying "Well, at least the DGA stood up against the AMPTP longer than the French held out against the Nazis." One of my day jobs during this strike has been teaching High School  History so I am compelled to say that the French held out a great deal longer. The DGA did however hold out longer than the Italians against the US when the Allies actually landed in Italy proper.

So lets see where the story goes from here. In Italy it ended with Mussolini hanging from a lamp post. Lets all hope things go better for the DGA.

WHEN THE ENEMY IS US

As predicted the Dem primary campaign is moving element by element through the phases of a good story.

Iowa tested the candidates’ ability to motivate voters. It was all about PASSION. Obama won.

New Hampshire tested the candidates’ ability to marshal the party faithful and core constituencies. Hillary was the come back HEROINE of that phase.

Now the candidates must prove they can accurately define the ANTAGONIST and attacks and low blows are coming fast and furious. We predicted John Edwards would shine in this phase, but politics is about more than a candidates story, it is also very much about cash on hand. The FEC decision to cut John E. off from matching funds may have made him peripheral, but as Romney’s win in Michigan shows the fat lady has yet to sing.   

The danger in the Antagonist phase is that so much blood is spilled by candidates and their surrogates attacking each other that the party’s eventual nominee becomes an easy target in the real election that is still 9 months away. The candidates sense this and last nights Dem debate in Nevada allowed them to address it.

When Tim Russert asked Obama early on about a memo sent by his South Carolina press secretary pushing the story line that Hillary was playing the race card Obama quickly repudiated it saying with deep sincerity, “What I am absolutely convinced of is that everybody here is committed to racial equality.” It was very classy.

And Hillary did her part to defuse things, praising Obama and Edwards for the “extraordinary” personal stories adding “We are all family in the Democratic Party.”

If you noticed that her phrase has a slightly matriarchal ring – a very subtle playing of the gender card in her favor – you have to admire how deftly and kindly it was done. Hardly any blood spilled at all. It is so much more elegant to subliminally kill with a kiss. 

 

COUNT NICKOLAS

I promise to get back to the campaign stories soon (when all the furor about Hillary's 'emotional melt down" has cooled) BUT YOU REALLY SHOULD SEE THIS.

The WGA has been running a contest for best short film explaining the strike. This one gets my vote so far. It is great example of creating an antagonist as a way of defining a problem and giving emotional context to the struggle.. All you need to know to enjoy it is that Nick Counter is the chief negotiator for the AMPTP which represents the media conglomerates who walked away from the bargaining table three weeks ago.

FREE MOVIES

I know this is very late notice, and the readership of this blog is world wide, but if you are in LA and have some time open tomorrow (Sunday, January 13) you might want to attend the WGA sponsored –

 
UNION SOLIDARITY FILM FESTIVAL!

 

 WHEN:      SUNDAY, JAN 13, 11 AM – 7:30 PM

 

BILLY WILDER THEATER AT  THE HAMMER MUSEUM.

                  

10899 Wilshire Blvd
Los Angeles, CA 90024  

 

11 AM:      NEWSIES - A family film written by Bob Tzudiker and Noni White.

 

1:15 PM     NETWORK - Paddy Chayefsky’s scathing satire. .

 

3:30 PM     HARLAN COUNTY USA - Barbara Kopple’s classic documentary..

 

5:15 PM     NORMA RAE - Harriet Frank Jr. and Irving Ravitch’s brilliant screenplay about union organizing with an Academy Award winning performance by Sally Field that is to die for - and yes, we really, really like her.

 

Admission is free, families are welcome, and all of these films are all classics of five-element storytelling. (OK, Newsies may not technically be classic, but younger kids really love it and this is a family affair).

 

The event is free, the films are about people struggling to win their economic freedom – hey, if you have the free time you should definitely check them out.

And if you're not in LA? Just click here and see your own strike short courtesy of National Lampoon. The final image by the way is from Newsies. 

AS THE DUST SETTLES

I’m reading a lot about how “stunning” Hillary’s come from behind win in New Hampshire was. For those of us who use the five-element story model to follow campaigns there is nothing all that surprising about it Which doesn’t mean it isn’t fascinating.

As we said a few days back when you pitch a story it is often best to present the elements sequentially. First you build passion to capture attention (fire), then you provide a common point of view – a hero – so you and your audience have common ground (earth), then you define an obstacle or antagonist and dive into the struggle (water), which leads to a moment of heightened awareness and inspiration (air) and that awareness triggers a transformation – the change you are trying to achieve (space). This is how a good stump speech works and this same sequence is built into the structure of the primary campaign season.

No one had to plan to do it that way. It is the natural result of our neurobiology. The story elements are built into the nature of our minds. We go into this in greater detail in our book The Elements of Persuasion. 

This sequence plays out across the state primaries and each state gives a home field advantage to a candidate with a particular elemental strength. Earth relates to hero, and “the granite state” is going to give home field advantage to earthy, heroic candidates who have solid records to stand on, and have reached out to clearly defined constituencies with strong brand bonding (more on this later). With the state motto “Live Free or Die” the people of New Hampshire clearly take their heroes very seriously.

So two heroes won in New Hampshire. John McCain, a certified war hero, and Hillary Clinton, the stand-by-your-man heroine of one of the longest running soap operas to ever occupy the White House. It is sort of “no duh.”

QUICK STRIKE UPDATE

Last post I talked about rumors of a deal between United Artists and the WGA. Those rumors were true! You can read about the deal here.

And the Late Show video we talked about is back up at YouTube. It is SO worth a look, so click here and enjoy.