The Elements of Persuasion

DEBATE CANCELED BY STRIKE

The Democratic National Committee has canceled the CBS Presidential debate scheduled for December 10^th in Los Angeles. The reason? Candidates are refusing to cross the WGA picket lines.

John Edwards took the lead on this issue as he did earlier on health care. On November 16^th Edwards carried a sign on the WGA picket line in front of NBC in Burbank - you can see the footage here. Hillary quickly followed suit, saying that though she hadn’t walked the picket line, she definitely would not cross it. Edwards then upped the ante canceling an appearance ABC’s talker, The View. This time it was Michele Obama who followed his lead, canceling her appearance on that show scheduled for December 5. Edwards kept his union label shining bright – and his phone lines to West Coast celebrity contributors wide open – by speaking at the WGA rally in Manhattan Tuesday. Wednesday, CBS and the DNC threw in the towel and canceled.

So who is winning from all this? It looks like everyone. CBS News loses showing off Katie Couric as debate host, but the CBS Network probably gains market share on the night in question. The Washington Punditry loses a chance to decide who won the now canceled game of gottcha, but they'll easily find something else to natter on about. With the air wars going briefly silent, the Dem front-runners in Iowa - now locked in a statistical dead heat – win a chance to focus on shoring up their core supporters, and Iowa will ultimately be decided by boots on the ground. The big winner may be the viewing public. It is hard to imagine that any but the most depraved political junkies will feel debate deprived.

And of course we at EOP are winners because we've been following both the campaigns and the debates and we absolutely love it when story lines finally come together. It is so picaresque.

RECE$$ION

The “r-word” was the headline in bright red 96 point type on the cover of the NYT Week In Review last Sunday. And it was canted so that the image of the dollar signs sinking beneath the surface is unmistakable.

The content of Peter S. Goodman’s article – the facts the story contains – is relatively bland, but the emotions that wrap around the word “RECESSION” are so politically powerful that there was an immediate story explosion. On Fox News Bill O’Reilly angrily accused the Times of “rooting for a recession”, and Media Matters quickly shot back. You can see Bill’s statement, and the left of center reaction to his reaction here. 

This isn’t an economics blog, so we won’t join that particular food fight other than to note that the New York Times isn’t a leading indicator here – it is trailing public opinion. Back in October a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey showed that 65% of Americans expected a recession next year. And 40% thought we were already in one.

Clearly the economy is on everyone’s mind. In the Vanity Fair article “The Economic Consequence of Mr. Bush” Nobel Laureate Joseph E. Stiglitz makes it clear that the economic problems we face have been a long time coming and won’t be quickly fixed. 

As storm clouds gather and gasoline prices continue to spike smart candidates are already preparing to shift with the wind. At Horse Mouth Greg Sargent notes that many on the right are picking up and trumpeting a headline from the Washington Times claiming, “The Democrats are the Party of the Rich.” When the right begins to frame its story so that “being with the rich guys” is the losing position, there are very dark times ahead.

HUCKABEE'S SWEET SPOT

With the January 3 Iowa Caucus rapidly approaching Mike Huckabee is surging. The Washington Post-ABC News Poll has the formerly second tier candidate in a statistical dead heat with front-runner Mitt Romney. While the numbers for the other candidates are more or less solid, Huckabee’s have increased dramatically. The undecideds are deciding for Mike, despite the fact that Romney continues to massively outspend Huckabee in targeted TV. How is Huckabee doing it?

By being an authentic Hero.

In The Elements of Persuasion we define HERO as the person who provides us with a point of view that allows us to make a story our own. Particularly when we are looking for a Presidential Hero we aren’t looking for a tough guy who has all the answers. If we were it would be Giuliani’s swagger that was surging. We want more than that. We want someone we can trust - someone who is like us, but just a little bit better.

This “I’m one of you” approach is captured in Huckabee’s new ad “Chuck Norris Approved”. Check it out.

Instead of a standard celebrity endorsement it alternates Huckabee and Norris saying nice things about each other. It is hard to tell whether it is an ad for “Huckabee for President” or “Chuck Norris for Sheriff”. Norris’ best line? “A life long hunter Mike Huckabee will protect our Second Amendment Rights” When Chuck says it, we buy it totally. Our favorite Huckabee line? “There is no chin under Chuck Norris’ beard, only another fist.” We’re not even sure what it means but somehow it really works.

By establishing himself as a Chuck Norris fan Huckabee is making himself equal to all the other Chuck Norris fans out there, and Norris has a lot of fans. Being able to harness that sense of equality is any Hero’s greatest asset. This ad is good-natured, a little wacky, and brilliant.

 

ON THE BOULEVARD

Tuesday was a lovely day here in LA – aren’t they all? – perfect for getting together with a few close friends and strolling down the boulevard.

Which is what I did with 7500 of my closest friends as the Writers Guild of America held a solidarity march down Hollywood Boulevard with members of the other major Hollywood unions.

When I say these are some of my closest friends that isn’t just hyperbole. We actually were very close, packed much closer together than at the average cocktail party, so as we marched together our physical mirror neurons got a very nice massage. And chanting tuned us up vocally and emotionally as well. My favorite, “Fade In, Fade Out, What’s in between? You figure it out!”, is perhaps to writerly to be totally effective, but the standby, “On Strike! Shut it down! Hollywood is a Union Town!” was rousing and visceral. Particularly when the guy next you is a Teamster and the gal on the other side is a member of the Health Workers Union it makes you want to smile. Of course it does. Unity feels damned good. 

But this wasn’t just a feel good get together. In the story struggle this strike represents the WGA has taken a consciously asymmetric approach to storytelling. They are using the power of rumors – “viral marketing” – to get their message out. It is smart strategy. Research at Max Planck Institute is showing that gossip trumps written data when it comes to making decisions. You can read about that research here. Nothing spreads gossip faster than hanging out on a street corner with your friends.

When that street is Hollywood Boulevard there is an element of show biz magic to it as well. The last surviving Munchkins from the 1938 classic “Wizard of Oz” were being honored with their own star on the Walk of Fame a few hours before the WGA march and when asked by the press responded that they supported the strike.

That’s right. The WGA received the full backing and support of the Lollipop Guild! In the dream world that is Hollywood that is a really big deal.

THE NON-SMEAR SMEAR

The non-denial denial is pretty standard fare in Washington press briefings. The approved press response is the carefully practiced raising of an eyebrow as the questioner turns slightly towards camera – letting us, the viewers, know that they haven’t been taken in – and then a stiffening of the reporter’s upper lip that stretches into a knowing smirk when the next question is asked – letting the briefer know that the reporter is in on the joke and willing to play along for continued access. 

But what is the press corps to make of the latest wrinkle on this story trick – Robert Novak’s non-smear smear?

In his weekend column Novak wrote:

“Agents of Sen. Hillary Clinton are spreading the word in Democratic circles that she has scandalous information about her principal opponent for the party's presidential nomination, Sen. Barack Obama, but has decided not to use it. The nature of the alleged scandal was not disclosed.” 

Very well played, sir. Since nothing scandalous was actually mentioned there is no way Obama can disprove the non-existent charges, and since the charges were never actually made, there is no way Clinton can retract them or deny having not made them.

Obama falls for it and angrily demands that Clinton release the damning material or deny that it exists, and Clinton’s people claim she has no idea what Obama is talking about – managing just the right lilt in their voice to indicate that if Barack is that upset maybe he knows something they don’t – and then shoot back that anyone who believes a word Novak says is clearly far too naïve to be President.

As the fur begins to fly Novak sits staring heavy-lidded into the center camera at Fox News licking his lips and enjoying another brief moment in whatever dark sun he worships. Antagonists just don’t come any better than this. 

HILLARY'S TWO POINTS

Hillary Clinton has a new ad running in Iowa that is must watch political storytelling. Of course we like it, it begins with the line “Let me tell you a little story…” CLICK HERE AND WATCH IT. Then we’ll talk.

In five-element story terms this ad is almost perfect. The problem facing Joe Ward – the man speaking directly to us - is one that any one can relate to with PASSION – his son is sick and needs an expensive bone marrow transplant to survive. Joe himself is an excellent HERO. Speaking in a clear, authentic voice and making strong eye contact, it is very hard not to be drawn into seeing things from his point of view. The quick shots of family photos underline his everyman quality. We all have photos just like that in our home. The ANTAGONIST is easily understood. Joe’s insurance company (he has insurance, that’s important because he is a responsible parent) wouldn’t cover the life saving procedure his son desperately needed. But instead of giving up in despair Joe got an inspired idea (the element of AWARENESS) and called Hillary Clinton for help. The very next day Joe’s world is TRANSFORMED when Hilary gets the hospital to agree to cover the cost. 

A life and death story with all five elements in under 20 seconds. Beautiful. Then it gets better. Having established that Hillary’s commitment to health care is personal and practical, the ad now makes the second point that if Hillary’s opponents say she can’t be trusted they are just dead wrong – Joe trusted Hillary with his son’s life and she came through.

This ad isn’t a slam-dunk. It is better than that. It is the sort of quick break lay up that winning seasons are built around And if it gives her opponents a hard elbow as it goes in for the hoop, it is done so gracefully you end up smiling even as inside you’ve got to wince for their pain. 

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WRITER’S STRIKE – DUELING STORIES

The WGA strike is into its second week. That is a fact. In LA everyone takes that fact very personally because the loss of paychecks to writers (and to the crews of the TV shows shutting down prematurely, not to mention the loss of the mega-budgeted feature films thinking of filming in Australia to avoid picket lines) has an enormous ripple. Hollywood is a company and a union town. Nothing makes you quite as emotional as the thought that you won’t be able to feed your family. Facts + Emotions = Stories.

There are two dueling storylines coalescing. The studio story is simple, effective and tailored to the mainstream media that these same six media conglomerates own or control. It is easy for everyone to stay on message.

“The writer’s are spoiled, rich kids – the kind you never liked in high school because they always did extra homework and said snotty thing behind your back – and they need a firm parental hand or their silly little tantrum over “residuals” – whatever the hell those are – will cause chaos and spoil a good thing.”

It is George Lakoff’s “firm father” model of conservative framing without the saving grace of Frank Luntz’s brilliant words. It is no coincidence that Rupert Murdoch’s current lickspittle (and I mean that in a good way), Fox Group CEO Peter Chernin, is the most virulent proponent of this position. It is bad ass Big Daddyism at its most blatant.

For the writer's story JUST CLICK HERE. If like me you get most of your news from “The Daily Show” it will help ease your comedy jones.

INOCULATIONS II

It isn’t just the Repubs that worry about smear campaigns. Hillary Clinton knows first hand just how toxic things can get during a run for the White House - and how long viral attacks can fester before they break out into a full-blown case of impeachment. So as shocking as Rudy Giuliani climbing into bed with Pat Robertson is (now that is a visual image Rudy does not want popping into your mind come next November) the strange-couple pairing that got our attention last week was one mentioned by Mark Hosenball over at Newsweek.

Apparently Bill Clinton had a lunch last July with Richard Mellon Scaife. Yes that Richard Mellon Scaife. The same one who funded the Arkansas Project. Mellon Scaife is a charter member – if not THE charter member – of what Hillary famously called a “vast right wing conspiracy.” But after an amiable two hours sharing stories with Bill, Mellon Scaife wrote a “very generous” check to the William Jefferson Clinton Foundation to help fight AIDS. Mellon Scaife’s magazine Newsmax later called Clinton, “"part Merlin and part Midas—a politician with a magical touch." Well, they don't call him Slick Willie for nothing.

There is a radical difference between Hillary and Rudy’s odd-couple moves. Mellon Scaife remains staunchly Repub. Bill wasn’t dealing with the element of AWARENESS. He wasn’t trying to link the names Clinton and Mellon Scaife in voter’s minds as a viral defense - though I’m sure he hopes bridges he builds now will act as firewalls if a full blown media attack develops in the future. Clinton was focusing on the story element ANTAGONIST – using story to convert an opponent into an opportunity. It is an emotional, rather than intellectual exercise. We discuss techniques for doing this extensively in Elements of Persuasion. Judging from results, no one does it better than Big Dog Bill.

INOCULATIONS

It has been a week of strange bedfellows. The pairing that got the most ink was Repub front-runner, and sometimes cross-dresser, Rudy Giuliani cozying up to 700 Club host the right reverend Pat Robinson. It is a daring move on Giuliani’s part.

Joe Biden got the biggest laugh of the night at the recent Democratic Debate when he said that Rudy’s every sentence “consists of a noun and verb and 9/11.” Cheap shot? Maybe, but it is certainly true that Giuliani’s hero status is powerfully linked to his performance on the day the twin towers fell. So when Rudy, a pro-choice Republican who during his third divorce roomed with an openly gay couple publicly embraces the man who blamed that terrorist attack on America’s moral failings – in particular gay marriage and abortion – it released enough cognitive dissonance to power all the lights on Broadway.

But Rudy had no choice. He is trying to inoculate himself from the type of viral attack that destroyed John McCain in 2000. We dealt with that campaign extensively in Elements of Persuasion. The key to any viral attack is that people already have the components of the story you want to tell floating around in their heads somewhere, all you do is activate the illness. It is all about AWARENESS. The video you linked to if you clicked “cross-dresser” has been shown almost half a million times on Youtube. That is a lot of people already primed to catch whatever nastiness Rudy’s opponents are planning to dish out.

Meanwhile legitimate war hero John McCain is negotiating a 3 million dollar bank loan to tide his cash-strapped campaign over, and some of the Swift Boat crew are already running ads in his support – ads which McCain has quickly, and strategically, disavowed. It looks like South Carolina’s primary will be a lot like professional wrestling – not filled with truthiness, but very, very manly.