The Elements of Persuasion

RAPID RESPONSE

A few days ago I watched  “The War Room,” the Academy Award nominated documentary about Bill Clinton’s 1992 Campaign. It is still the best movie I know on the business of getting out a political message.  If you know a teenager interested in politics, this is the film to rent.

Towards the end, a much younger James Carville comes into frame wearing a t-shirt that reads “Speed Killed George Bush.” His shirt refers to Clinton’s ability to instantly respond to any attack. Bill Clinton knew he couldn’t control the stories of that campaign – he had entered it carrying too much scandalous baggage – but he could control the SPACE in which those stories were told. That space is the media’s 24-hour news cycle. Clinton’s War Room made sure that at the end of each day it was Bill Clinton’s spin (their HERO’S POV) that voters would remember.
The folks at Team Hillary are past masters at this. A few months ago I mentioned how quickly Hillary responded when she saw John Edward’s health care plan going over big with the crowds in Iowa. She has done it again.
Roughed up in last night’s Debate in Philly, and smarting from the announcement earlier in the day that Edwards had been endorsed by the New Hampshire SEIU (The Service Employees International Union, one of the nations most politically militant labor groups) her team immediately announced an endorsement by an even larger union - American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees widely known for its political skill at backing winners. It is not just about boots on the ground, it is about perceptions of boots on the ground. 

If Hillary stays close to Edwards and trades blow for blow, he is going down. Whatever John. E. does next, he has to throw off her timing. 

JOHN E. IS BACK!

This site tries not to play favorites. But we have to admit that in recent weeks we’ve spent more time looking at the Repub campaigns than at the Dem’s. Well, who doesn’t gawk at a car wreck when you drive past one on the freeway? And Hillary’s careful consolidation her base has all the excitement of watching ice form on a New Hampshire pond. Now, finally a Democrat has done something really worth paying attention to.

John Edwards – you remember him; southern boy from a hard scrabble family with a silver tongue and a twinkle in his eye married to that feisty lawyer lady (gee, that reminds me of another Dem who once ran for President and won) – has made A GREAT SPEECH. If you like political storytelling you owe it to yourself to read the whole thing.

Notice how it follows our five-element model.

1.    First, Edwards discusses the moment that he and his wife had to decide what they really cared about – their PASSION.

2.    Then he describes the American People with their HEROIC “can do” spirit – this is the base he is hoping to win over.

3.    Next he defines his ANTAGONIST – the corrupt, lobbyist-laden mess that has become business as usual in evil old Washington DC. He very skillfully links Hillary to the bad guys without demonizing her and actually saying she herself is corrupt (though he comes awfully close).

4.    Now he uses a quote from Abraham Lincoln to make us AWARE of why this matters so much. The dream of America won’t be destroyed by foreign enemies, but by our own moral failures.

5.    By the end of the speech he hopes he has TRANSFORMED our sense of what the campaign is all about.

Whether he did it or not is hard to say. But at least he gave it one hell of a good shot.

STRIKE TALK

The hot story here in LA – hotter than the Santana Winds that set the canyons ablaze last week (and potentially even more economically devastating) is the very real possibility that the Writers Guild of America will be forced to go on strike. If that happens Hollywood film and television production will come to a screeching halt. 

No more episodes of your favorites. Desperate Housewives will become even more desperate, your favorite Heroes may end up frozen in time like the images on one of those prescient paintings, and the folks Lost on that mysterious island in the South Pacific may never figure out what the hell has really been going on. It will be a national case of Narratus Interuptus.            

On one side of this labor dispute you have the AMPTP (The Association of Motion Picture and Television Producers) that represents the movie studios and television networks – some of the most powerful conglomerates in the world. These folks actually own the television news networks and control, through their advertising dollars, most of the print media  (those big full page ads for movies give them lots of leverage in a newspaper world increasingly strapped for cash). In terms of getting out their message they have the obvious edge.

On the other hand the WGA proudly (and rightly in our opinion) calls itself “America’s Storytellers.” They actually create all that content that makes you tune into the networks in the first place. If anyone knows how to tell their story in a way ordinary folks can relate to, it should be them.

As with any political contest the side that tells its story best and gets it out quickest will probably win. This is shaping up to be a battle royal. It is definitely worth watching closely. We’ll be doing just that in the coming days.

The WGA contract runs out Midnight October 31st. Happy Halloween Hollywood. 

WATCHING THE ODDS

One problem we have using the five-element story model to analyze political campaigns is how to accurately measure the PASSION that a candidate is actually generating.  Polls are very good at finding out how many people share a candidate’s POV – their success at becoming the party’s potential HERO. But it is passion that motivates actual turnout. This is particularly true in primaries.  In our model Passion equals Fire, so another way to say this is ”How do you accurately determine how hot a candidate really is?”

One way is to look at the money. Cash is the fuel every campaign burns. But fundraising is only accurately reported quarterly. By that time the relation between the giving and any specific political position (the reason for the increase or decrease in passion) doesn’t show up. You had better believe the campaign is acutely aware of it, but the rest of us are in the dark.   

Josh Marshall at TalkingPointsMemo – an absolute must follow site - is using the betting odds on candidates to do just this. He says he is using the odds to show “conventional wisdom on how the candidates stand,” but we think he is on to something much more interesting. Check out his analysis of Obama.

Whether you’re betting on the horses, the world’s series, or a candidate, if you don’t feel that heat, you don’t make the bet. And if you are a player, (and if you aren’t you won’t be betting on one of the major sites) when you stop feeling it you immediately take your money off the table.  That makes these odds ones to follow. Find out more about the “candidate futures markets” here.

THE VALUE OF STRAW POLLS

Being able to gauge how hot a candidate is - the PASSION they inspire in the party faithful - is crucial in primary season because on Election Day the side with the best ground game – committed volunteers who get out the vote in myriad ways - most often wins. Turning those volunteers on, and keeping them tuned in, is what straw poll events are all about. People who show up and vote are likely to volunteer when it really counts.

That is why the Values Voter Summit held this weekend by the Family Research Council deserves the ink it gets. Unfortunately in an effort at electronic outreach the Council left a tremendous loophole in how it tabulated the winner. All online voters had to do was pony up a buck and register. Not the same level of commitment as attendees showed at all. The result is a shocking disparity.

Among people who actually attended, Mike Huckabee romped home with 51.26% support, to Romney's 10.4%. But the numbers you are more likely to see reading your favorite Washington Pundit say that Romney narrowly won the day with 27.62% to Huckabee’s 27.15%. This figure is the total including electronic voting.

According to Mike Luo who was there:

“After the votes were tallied, there was a palpable tension felt walking around the Hilton Hotel, where the event was held. Delegates were overheard on their cell phones complaining about the results to friends.”

This is just what you don’t want – a brush fire of protest over a purely symbolic win that makes your opponents troops even more passionately committed to working against you. Playing fast and loose with the numbers at an event of self defined “values voters” to impress the press may well prove one of Romney’s more costly mistakes.

PEAK

I read Chip Conley’s new book Peak: How Great Companies Get Their Mojo from Maslow. I love this book! In it Chip defangs a huge business myth: People are only motivated by money and power. Chip shows that what really moves successful businesses are aspirational qualities like trust, loyalty and on occasion, even love.

Chip is no lofty, couch-side observer. He speaks from the trenches of entrepreneurial experience. He is the founder and CEO of Joie de Vivre Hospitality, which operates boutique hotels, restaurants, bars, and spas throughout California.

One of the most gripping sections of Peak is how Chip was able to increase market share during the 2000 to 2004 depression. This was a time when the whole travel industry descended into the worst slump in 60 years. Chip shares how scared he was of losing everything. During that dark period he re-discovered the work of the legendary psychologist Abraham Maslow.

Maslow was a revolutionary. Instead of focusing his research on what was wrong with people, he looked at what made people healthy and inspired. He recognized that all humans have a higher nature as well as a need for the basics such as food, sleep and shelter. Chip adapted Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs and inspired his business to give employees and customers the unexpected, the exceptional, and the superb in a time when his competitors where hunkering down and not answering the phone calls from disappointed guests and angry investors. By being AWARE of the real needs of his employees and customers Chip transformed Joie de Vivre into a great company.

Go on to Chip's website to learn more, and order his book. You’ll be glad you did.

WEDGED IN

Matt Yglesias over at Atlantic comments on the me-too-ism of the current Repubs:

“There's really something bizarre about the growing number of constituencies to which your modern-day Republicans must pander in order to succeed in primary politics.”

Kevin Drum at Washington Monthly feels this is a function of the times. With the fortunes of the Dems running strong they seem more cohesive for the same reason a winning baseball team seems happier in the dug out.   

The problem Repubs face is more systemic - and of course we think it is linked to story.

In Elements of Persuasion, we show why having the right Antagonist is crucial to motivating your troops. Antagonists release emotions that link to memory and lead to actions like getting off the couch and going to the polls. But there is a progression to stories. FIRST build Passion, THEN define your Hero, AND ONLY THEN is your Hero ready to tackle the problems represented by the Antagonist. You can’t really define a Hero in the negative – that is, you can’t define your hero solely by what they are against. The enemy of my enemy is rarely a trusted friend. Ronald Reagan was a catalyst for change not because he stood against big government but because he stood for a new “Morning in America.”  Hence, the Reagan Democrats.

Over the last election cycles Karl Rove masterminded a strategy of wedge issues. Each became a litmus test of what it means to be a real Republican. Eventually he sliced the pie so thin there is no room for the current candidates to breath. They quite literally lack inspiration. Whoever successfully breaks out of this losing pattern will end up being a true Republican Hero.   

Richard Maxwell on Starstyle(r)Be the Star You Are!

Tune into the radio program, Starstyle(r)-Be the Star You Are! with host
Cynthia Brian, on Thursday, October 18 from 3-4 pm PST where I'll be
interviewed live about The Elements of Persuasion.
You can listen from your computer by going to worldtalkradio.com. I'd would love for you to
call in and talk to us, toll-free at STUDIO A: 1-866-613-1612. If you
miss the live show, you can find it archived at that site or listen live from another
of the syndicated radio shows listed at star-style.com.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE…

A few posts back, called President Bush’s veto of the SCHIP Bill a political mistake. In an original draft I had the line “If the Repubs dropped kicked a baby rather than kissing it this veto would be a perfect trifecta for the Dems.” I trimmed that line as being over the top. My mistake. That is exactly what some Repubs are doing now.

Taking a page from the Ronald Reagan playbook (always a good idea) the Dems put a human face on their position by having Graeme Frost, a 12-year old from Florida present their response to the President’s weekly radio address. Graeme and his sister were seriously injured in a SUV accident and depend on SCHIP for medical care. Graeme said why it was important for them. Various right wing bloggers and radio “personalities” immediately, and ravenously attacked the young boy using largely bogus attempts at character assassination.

12-year-olds aren’t babies you say? Fair enough. How about 2-year-old Bethany Wilkerson, who suffers from a heart condition and depends on SCHIP for her care? Is she young enough to qualify? She is the latest target of web venom. And it is not just a few radical loose cannons. The office of Senate Minority Leader Mitch Mc Connell is deeply involved. He denies it, but there is some nasty smoking email.

This only goes to show the power of a strong, authentic point of view (a real life hero) to clarify complex issues and crystallize debate. Meanwhile the latest CNN poll shows voter support for overriding the SCHIP veto at 61% and rising. Picking on little kids is not likely to change that.

John McCain - Down But Not Out

Senator John McCain, is no longer getting the ink he deserves as the MSM anoints Giuliani, Romney and Thompson the Repub top tier. This is probably a mistake. Maybe not as big a mistake as McCain’s decision to visit fundamentalist Bob Jones University, (see Chapter 9, Elements of Persuasion for details of why) but still short sighted. As McCain’s enforced stay in the Hanoi Hilton proves, he is at his heroic best when in a tight place. With only $2M in the bank (Romney has $12M, Giuliani $15M) and media buys fast approaching, McCain has come out swinging.

"One of the other Republican candidates made an extraordinary statement yesterday. Former Gov. Romney yesterday proclaimed himself the only real Republican in this race… In fact, when he ran against Ted Kennedy, he said he didn't want to return to the days of Reagan-Bush. I always thought Ronald Reagan was a real Republican. When he refused to endorse the Contract With America, I don't think he was speaking for Republicans. And when he was embracing the Democratic position on many major issues of the day, I don't think he was speaking for Republicans..."

“You might not always agree with me on every issue, but I hope you know I'm not going to con you. The most important thing we have in this life is our self-respect. And I'm not going to trade mine for anyone's vote or for any office."

Straight Talk is McCain’s signature style. He may just be getting his second wind.